Saturday, November 15, 2008
ที่
3:33:00 a.m.
เขียนโดย
Jess
President Bush Discusses Presidential Election Rose Garden
10:20 A.M. EST
THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. Last night, I had a warm conversation with President-elect Barack Obama. I congratulated him and Senator Biden on their impressive victory. I told the President-elect he can count on complete cooperation from my administration as he makes the transition to the White House.
I also spoke to Senator John McCain. I congratulated him on a determined campaign that he and Governor Palin ran. The American people will always be grateful for the lifetime of service John McCain has devoted to this nation. And I know he'll continue to make tremendous contributions to our country.
No matter how they cast their ballots, all Americans can be proud of the history that was made yesterday. Across the country, citizens voted in large numbers. They showed a watching world the vitality of America's democracy, and the strides we have made toward a more perfect union. They chose a President whose journey represents a triumph of the American story -- a testament to hard work, optimism, and faith in the enduring promise of our nation.
Many of our citizens thought they would never live to see that day. This moment is especially uplifting for a generation of Americans who witnessed the struggle for civil rights with their own eyes -- and four decades later see a dream fulfilled.
A long campaign has now ended, and we move forward as one nation. We're embarking on a period of change in Washington, yet there are some things that will not change. The United States government will stay vigilant in meeting its most important responsibility -- protecting the American people. And the world can be certain this commitment will remain steadfast under our next Commander-in-Chief.
There's important work to do in the months ahead, and I will continue to conduct the people's business as long as this office remains in my trust. During this time of transition, I will keep the President-elect fully informed on important decisions. And when the time comes on January the 20th, Laura and I will return home to Texas with treasured memories of our time here -- and with profound gratitude for the honor of serving this amazing country.
It will be a stirring sight to watch President Obama, his wife, Michelle, and their beautiful girls step through the doors of the White House. I know millions of Americans will be overcome with pride at this inspiring moment that so many have awaited so long. I know Senator Obama's beloved mother and grandparents would have been thrilled to watch the child they raised ascend the steps of the Capitol -- and take his oath to uphold the Constitution of the greatest nation on the face of the earth.
Last night I extended an invitation to the President-elect and Mrs. Obama to come to the White House. And Laura and I are looking forward to welcoming them as soon as possible.
ซาชา และมาลีอา พ่อรักลูกทั้งสองเกินกว่าที่ลูกจะจินตนาการได้ และลูกได้ลูกหมาตัวใหม่ซึ่งจะย้ายไปไปอยู่กับเราที่บ้านสีขาวหลังใหม่(The new White House) ด้วย
Remarks of President-Elect Barack Obama : Election Night Chicago, IL November 04, 2008
If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
It's the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.
It's the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled - Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.
It's the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.
It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.
I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he's fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation's promise in the months ahead.
I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation's next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that's coming with us to the White House. And while she's no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.
To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics - you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you've sacrificed to get it done.
But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to - it belongs to you.
I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn't start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington - it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.
It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation's apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.
I know you didn't do this just to win an election and I know you didn't do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they'll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor's bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.
The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there.
There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can't solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it's been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years - block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.
What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek - it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.
So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it's that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers - in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.
Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House - a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, "We are not enemies, but friends... though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection." And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.
For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that's on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She's a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing - Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.
She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn't vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.
And tonight, I think about all that she's seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can't, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.
At a time when women's voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.
When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.
When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.
She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that "We Shall Overcome." Yes we can.
A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.
America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?
This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:
Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.
เหมือนอย่างที่แมคเคนตอกโอบามาให้หน้าหงายเมื่อตอนดีเบทครั้งที่สามนั่นแหละว่าหากโอบามาต้องการผูกโยงเขาเข้ากับประธานาธิบดีบุชแล้ว หากเขาต้องการโจมตีบุชหรือ ideology ของบุชเขาควรลงสมัครประธานาธิบดีตั้งแต่ 4 ปีที่แล้วแข่งกับบุช(ซึ่งหากโอบามาลงสมัคร 4 ปีที่แล้วก็ไม่มีทางชนะบุชหรอก) แต่ก็แปลกใจว่าทำไมค่ายแมคเคนถึงเพิ่งมานึกออกทั้งที่ประโยค “I'm not George Bush, if you wanted to run against George Bush, you should have run for President Four Years Ago” ทั้งที่ชาวคอนเซอร์เวทีฟเน็ตเรานึกการโต้ตอบโอบามาแบบนี้ออกมานานแล้ว
6.แมคเคนสื่อสารเรื่องแผนการแก้ปัญหาเศรษฐกิจได้ไม่ชัดเจน ในเรื่องของการแก้ปัญหาทางเศรษฐกิจนั้นแผนเศรษฐกิจของโอบามาไม่ใช่เรื่องใหม่อะไรเลย เพราะผู้ที่เป็นมันสมองให้กับแผนเศรษฐกิจของเขาก็คือทีมเศรษฐกิจจากสมัยรัฐบาลคลินตันที่เน้น Big government เน้นมาตรการเพิ่มภาษี และเป็นพวกกีดกันทางการค้าตัวยง คือการปกป้องผลประโยชน์ตัวเองทางด้านภาษีและการค้า และต่อต้านการค้าเสรี (Freetrade)
“Unfortunately, our country sometimes sends mixed signals about the openness of our economy. Voices of economic isolationism do not represent the interests of the American people”
นโยบายรีพับลิกันคือ Create new wealth และทุกคนได้รับโอกาสอย่างเท่าเทียมกันในการประสพความสำเร็จอันเป็นเจตนารมณ์ของผู้ก่อตั้งประเทศแต่ไม่ใช่ spread the wealth around อันเป็นแนวคิดแบบสังคมนิยมซึ่งไม่ใช่พื้นฐานเศรษฐกิจของอเมริกา
7. แมคเคนต้องไม่สนับสนุนแผน Bailout ของประธานาธิบดีบุชเขาจึงจะได้รับความนิยมจากฐานเสียงอนุรักษ์นิยมเพิ่มมากขึ้นเพราะ Bailout Plan 700 พันล้านเหรียญสหรัฐนั้นมันขัดกับอดุมการณ์เรื่องกลไกตลาดเสรีของคอนเซอร์เวทีฟและสร้างความแตกต่างระหว่างเขาและโอบามาได้อย่างชัดเจน โอบามาจะยิ่งดูเป็น Socialist มากขึ้น แต่แมคเคนก็คือ แมคเคนเพราะเขาเชื่อว่าการสนับสนุน Bailout ก็คือ put country first นั่นเอง ขณะที่โอบามายังไม่ยอมแสดงท่าทีแต่รอดูสถานการณ์ก่อนซึ่งก็เป็นลักษณะเ)พาะตัวของโอบามาคือ "คลุมเคลือไว้ก่อนและสามารต่อรองได้ทุกนโยบาย" ดูแล้วเหมือนนายชวน หลีกภัยของไทยเล่นการเมืองยังไงยังงั้น
การหาเสียงที่แจคสันวิลล์ ฟลอริด้านี้โอบามาได้กล่าวโจมตีแมคเคนด้วยการย้ำว่าที่แมคเคนเคยมาหาเสียงที่เมืองนี้แล้วบอกว่า "U.S. economy is fundamentally sound " นั้นเป็นการกล่าวอย่างไม่เข้าใจสภาวะเศรษฐกิจของอเมริกาในตอนนี้ โอบามาเรียกแมคเคนว่าเป็นคนหลุดโลก แต่จริงๆแล้วคำพูดตรงนี้โอบามและพรรคเดโมแครตพูดบิดเบือนมาตลอดจริงๆแล้วแมคเคนกล่าวว่า
"there's been tremendous turmoil in our financial markets and Wall Street and it is -- people are frightened by these events. Our economy, I think, still the fundamentals of our economy are strong. But these are very, very difficult time. And I promise you, we will never put America in this position again. We will clean up Wall Street. We will reform government."
ในส่วนตรงนี้แมคเคนได้กล่าวตอบโต้คำกล่าวหาของโอบามาว่าคำว่า "fundamentals of our economy are strong" "รากฐานเศรษฐกิจของเรานั้นแข็งแกร่ง" นั้น คำว่า "รากฐาน" ในที่นี้เขาหมายถึง American workerโดยกล่าวว่า
"My opponents may disagree, but those fundamentals of America are strong, No one can match an American worker. Our workers sell more goods to more markets than any other on earth. Our workers have always been the strength of our economy, and they remain the strength of our economy today."
เพราะจริงๆแล้วประเทศก็เปรียบเหมือนบ้านหลังหนึ่ง foundation ยังแข็งแรงอยู่เพียงแต่มี ไม่กี่ห้องในบ้านเท่านั้นที่เละเทะ ตรงนี้ไม่ได้ทำให้บ้านพังไปได้ ในช่วงที่อเมริกาเกิดวิกฤตการเงินโอบามาจึงใช้โอกาสนี้หาเสียงโดยใช้ "ความกลัว" เข้าครอบงำคนอเมริกันนั่นเอง
จริงๆแล้วในภาวะเช่นนี้ การที่คนจะเป็น "ผู้นำที่ดี" ได้ สิ่งที่ดีที่สุดที่ควรกล่าวกับประชาชนในสถานการณ์ที่ยากลำบากคือ ต้องไม่สร้างความตื่นตระหนกขึ้นในสังคมแต่ให้ความเชื่อมั่นแทน ผู้เขียนคิดว่าการพูดของแมคเคนนั้นเป็นคำพูดที่จริงและเหมาะสมที่สุดแล้วในสภาวะเช่นนี้ ในขณะที่โอบามาเวลาหาเสียงโทนของเขาจะออกในแนวสร้างความหวาดวิตกกับภาวะเศรษฐกิจให้ดูน่ากลัวเกินจริงออกไปในทำนองว่า our economy is falling apart and soon there will be a depression and no more auto loans or student loans and millions of people are going to lose their homes. แม้มันออกจะดูเป็นลบอย่างมากแต่ในทางการเมืองแล้วมันใช้ได้ผลจริงๆ
เมื่อได้ฟังชวาร์เซเนกเกอร์กล่าวปราศรัยหาเสียงช่วยจอห์น แมคเคนแล้ว ผู้เขียนคิดว่าน่าเสียดายที่ ชวาร์เซเนกเกอร์ ไม่ได้เกิดที่สหรัฐอเมริกาไม่อย่างนั้นเขาต้องมีโอกาสมากพอสมควรในการเข้าชิงตำแหน่งประธานาธิบดีสหรัฐ เพราะชวาร์เซเนกเกอร์นับว่าเป็นนักปราศรัยที่เก่งมากคนหนึ่งทีเดียว คำพูดของเขามีพลังแม้สำเนียงอังกฤษของเขาจะไม่ใช่ native speaker เหมือนคนอเมริกันที่เกิดและเติบโตในอเมริกาดังที่เขาเคยกล่าวไว้ว่า "Naturally, when I came to this country, my accent was very bad, and my accent was also very strong, which was an obstacle as I began to pursue acting."
ฟังชวาร์เซเนกเกอร์พูดถึงนโยบายเศรษฐกิจของโอบามาแล้วทำให้ผู้เขียนนึกถึงบทความชิ้นหนึ่งที่มีชื่อว่า The Europeanization of America:What's ahead if Obama becomes president ที่ลงตีพิมพ์ในหนังสือพิมพ์ เดอะ วอลสตรีท เจอร์นัลเมื่อเร็วๆนี้ บทความชิ้นนี้เป็นส่วนเสริมคำพูดของชวาร์เซเนกเกอร์ได้ชัดเจนที่สุดในแง่ที่ว่า อเมริกาในยุคโอบามาจะย้อนกลับไปสู่การเป็นรัฐสวัสดิการที่อิงระบบเศรษฐกิจแบบสังคมนิยมมากขึ้นที่คล้ายแนวทางแบบประเทศในแถบยุโรปสมัยก่อน(ปัจจุบันยุโรปมีการปรับเปลี่ยนนโยบายทางเศรษฐกิจคล้ายกับอเมริกาบ้างบางส่วนในบางประเทศ) คือ
"The sharp drop in American fatalities in Iraq reflects the overall security improvements across the country following the Sunni revolt against al-Qaida and the rout suffered by Shiite extremists in fighting last spring in Basra and Baghdad."
ซึ่งแม้แต่บารัค โอบามายังยอมรับว่า surge ประสพผลสำเร็จในหนทางที่ไม่มีใครเคยคาดหวังไว้ว่ามันจะได้ผลโดยกล่าวว่า "I think that the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated" แต่แน่อนอนว่านักการเมืองที่เล่นการเมืองเก่งแบบโอบามาคือ "คลุมเครือไว้ก่อนและพร้อมต่อรองได้ในทุกนโยบาย" ย่อมที่จะหลีกเลี่ยงใช้คำว่า "ชัยชนะ" ในสงครามอิรัคแต่ขอพูดว่าเขาจะเป็นผู้ "จบ" สงครามในอิรัคแทนตลอดแคมเปญหาเสียงของเขาเพื่อไม่ต้องการให้เครดิตกับประธานาธิบดีบุช(แม้มันจะเป็นเรื่องของชาติก็ตามแต่พรรคเดโมแครตต้องมาก่อน)
แต่ล่าสุดนี่โอบามากลับออกมาออกมาพูดยืนยันว่า
“Throughout this campaign I’ve argued that we need more troops and more resources to win the war in Iraq. But we also need a new strategy that deals with Pakistan that deals with issues of corruption that deals with issues of narco-terrorism. We need a comprehensive strategy and approach to confront the growing threat from al Qaeda along the Pakistani border”
แล้วที่เคยหาเสียงบอกว่าหากได้เป็นประธานาธิบดีแล้วตนเองจะ “จบ” สงครามในอิรัค( "end" war in Iraq) และ “เอาชนะ” ในสงครามต่อต้านก่อการร้ายในอาฟกานิสถานมาตลอดล่ะหายไปไหน ผู้เขียนฟังแล้วรู้สึกแปลกใจว่า “จุดยืนเดิม” ของโอบามาเรื่องอิรัคและอาฟกานิสถานหายไปไหนแล้ว? เพราะผู้เขียนฟังเขาหาเสียงเรื่องอิรัคและอาฟกานิสถานทีไรเขาก็บอกว่า การเพิ่มกำลังทหารและทรัพยากรจะนำไปสู่ความสำเร็จในอาฟกานิสถาน แต่หากใช้นโยบายเดียวกันนี้คือเพิ่มกำลังทหารและทรัพยากรจะนำไปสู่ความล้มเหลวในอิรัค
โจ ช่างประปาช่วยเปลี่ยนโฉมการโต้วาทีครั้งนี้เป็นประเด็นเรื่อง “ภาษี” ที่ทำให้หลายคนต้องจับตามองและเจาะลึกอย่างละเอียดและเป็นการตอกย้ำถึงแนวความคิดทางการเมืองและเศรษฐกิจของโอบามาว่าเขามีความเชื่อออกไปในทาง"สังคมนิยม"เมื่อเขาตอบคำถามโจ ช่างประปาว่าเขาต้องการ "spreading the wealth around would help everyone" คือกระจายความมั่งคั่งออกไปเพื่อช่วยทุกคน นี่เป็นคอนเซ็ปท์พื้นฐานของระบบเศรษฐกิจแบบสังคมนิยม
ภายใต้นโยบายภาษีของแมคเคนนั้นจะก่อให้เกิดการจ้างงานถึง 2.13 ล้านตำแหน่งต่อปีขณะที่ภายใต้นโยบายภาษีของโอบามานั้นจะทำให้เกิดการสูญเสียงานกว่า 1 ล้านตำแหน่ง เพราะนโยบายรีพับลิกันคือการสร้างเศรษฐีใหม่หรือความมั่งคั้งขึ้นใหม่(Creating new wealth) ในสังคมและให้ทุกคนได้รับโอกาสอย่างเท่าเทียมกันในการประสพความสำเร็จอันเป็นเจตนารมณ์ของผู้ก่อตั้งประเทศแต่ไม่ใช่ spread the wealth around อันเป็นแนวคิดแบบสังคมนิยมซึ่งไม่ใช่พื้นฐานเศรษฐกิจของอเมริกา
หากต้องการอ่านการวิเคราะห์แผนภาษีของผู้สมัครทั้งสองโดยละเอียด บทความ The Obama and McCain Tax Plans: How Do They Compare? จะตอบข้อสงสัยและให้ความรู้เกี่ยวกับนโยบายภาษีของผู้สมัครทั้งสองคนได้ชัดเจนที่สุดบทความหนึ่งเท่าที่ผู้เขียนเคยอ่านมา
the third presidential debate between Republican nominee Sen. John McCain and Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama. The debate was held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. It was moderated by Bob Schieffer CBS.
at the third presidential debate in Hempstead, New York, John McCain and Barack Obama discussed the tax situation confronting Joe Wurzelbacher, a plumber in Toledo, Ohio.
Here is video of Joe Wurzelbacher reacting to last night's final presidential debate. Mr. Wurzelbacher was mentioned multiple times last night in a discussion of tax policy.
at the third presidential debate in Hempstead, New York, John McCain told Barack Obama, "Sen. Obama I'm not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run four years ago."
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
ที่
10:51:00 p.m.
เขียนโดย
Jess
It depends on what the meaning of 'tax cut' is.
One of Barack Obama's most potent campaign claims is that he'll cut taxes for no less than 95% of "working families." He's even promising to cut taxes enough that the government's tax share of GDP will be no more than 18.2% -- which is lower than it is today.
APIt's a clever pitch, because it lets him pose as a middle-class tax cutter while disguising that he's also proposing one of the largest tax increases ever on the other 5%. But how does he conjure this miracle, especially since more than a third of all Americans already pay no income taxes at all? There are several sleights of hand, but the most creative is to redefine the meaning of "tax cut."
For the Obama Democrats, a tax cut is no longer letting you keep more of what you earn. In their lexicon, a tax cut includes tens of billions of dollars in government handouts that are disguised by the phrase "tax credit." Mr. Obama is proposing to create or expand no fewer than seven such credits for individuals:
- A $500 tax credit ($1,000 a couple) to "make work pay" that phases out at income of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 per couple. - A $4,000 tax credit for college tuition. - A 10% mortgage interest tax credit (on top of the existing mortgage interest deduction and other housing subsidies). - A "savings" tax credit of 50% up to $1,000. - An expansion of the earned-income tax credit that would allow single workers to receive as much as $555 a year, up from $175 now, and give these workers up to $1,110 if they are paying child support. - A child care credit of 50% up to $6,000 of expenses a year. - A "clean car" tax credit of up to $7,000 on the purchase of certain vehicles.
Here's the political catch. All but the clean car credit would be "refundable," which is Washington-speak for the fact that you can receive these checks even if you have no income-tax liability. In other words, they are an income transfer -- a federal check -- from taxpayers to nontaxpayers. Once upon a time we called this "welfare," or in George McGovern's 1972 campaign a "Demogrant." Mr. Obama's genius is to call it a tax cut.
The Tax Foundation estimates that under the Obama plan 63 million Americans, or 44% of all tax filers, would have no income tax liability and most of those would get a check from the IRS each year. The Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis estimates that by 2011, under the Obama plan, an additional 10 million filers would pay zero taxes while cashing checks from the IRS.
The total annual expenditures on refundable "tax credits" would rise over the next 10 years by $647 billion to $1.054 trillion, according to the Tax Policy Center. This means that the tax-credit welfare state would soon cost four times actual cash welfare. By redefining such income payments as "tax credits," the Obama campaign also redefines them away as a tax share of GDP. Presto, the federal tax burden looks much smaller than it really is.
The political left defends "refundability" on grounds that these payments help to offset the payroll tax. And that was at least plausible when the only major refundable credit was the earned-income tax credit. Taken together, however, these tax credit payments would exceed payroll levies for most low-income workers.
It is also true that John McCain proposes a refundable tax credit -- his $5,000 to help individuals buy health insurance. We've written before that we prefer a tax deduction for individual health care, rather than a credit. But the big difference with Mr. Obama is that Mr. McCain's proposal replaces the tax subsidy for employer-sponsored health insurance that individuals don't now receive if they buy on their own. It merely changes the nature of the tax subsidy; it doesn't create a new one.
There's another catch: Because Mr. Obama's tax credits are phased out as incomes rise, they impose a huge "marginal" tax rate increase on low-income workers. The marginal tax rate refers to the rate on the next dollar of income earned. As the nearby chart illustrates, the marginal rate for millions of low- and middle-income workers would spike as they earn more income.
Some families with an income of $40,000 could lose up to 40 cents in vanishing credits for every additional dollar earned from working overtime or taking a new job. As public policy, this is contradictory. The tax credits are sold in the name of "making work pay," but in practice they can be a disincentive to working harder, especially if you're a lower-income couple getting raises of $1,000 or $2,000 a year. One mystery -- among many -- of the McCain campaign is why it has allowed Mr. Obama's 95% illusion to go unanswered.
Biden's Fantasy World Sarah Palin may not know as much about the world, but at least most of what she knows is true.
Palin Comes Out Swinging Sarah Palin's scintillating success in last week's vice presidential debate with Joe Biden has made her an enormous asset (again) to John McCain's bid for the presidency. Now McCain must decide how to maximize her role in the campaign. Anything short of bringing her front and center makes no sense.
70 Million Watch Palin-Biden Debate 69.9 million people watched the debate, tying it for second place among all Presidential and Vice Presidential debates. (The second Bush/Clinton/Perot debate of 1992 also have 69.9 million. The all-time debate leader is the Carter/Reagan debate of 1980.)
Sunday, October 05, 2008
ที่
2:36:00 p.m.
เขียนโดย
Jess
First Presidential Debate Videos
The first presidential debate between Republican nominee Sen. John McCain and Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama was held on September 26, 2008. The debate was held at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Mississippi. It was moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS.
WASHINGTON - Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain stretched the facts in accusing each other of kowtowing to the oil industry and sprinkled other dubious assertions across the landscape of public policy in their first presidential debate.
McCain's plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 25 percent from 35 percent across the board so as to spur job creation was boiled down by Obama into a $4 billion tax break for Big Oil, as if no other companies or workers would benefit.
McCain similarly cut corners with context when he accused Obama of voting for huge subsidies for the oil industry. Obama voted to strip away those subsidies and, when that failed, backed broad energy legislation that contained them.
So it went during 90 minutes of debate, a reality warp at times.
Some examples:
OBAMA: "Sen. McCain mentioned Henry Kissinger, who is one of his advisers, who along with five recent secretaries of state just said we should meet with Iran — guess what? — without preconditions."
MCCAIN: "Dr. Kissinger did not say that he would approve face-to-face meetings between the president of the United States and (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad. He did not say that. He said there could be secretary-level and lower-level meetings. I've always encouraged that."
THE FACTS: Obama was right that Kissinger called for meetings without preconditions. McCain was right that Kissinger did not call for such meetings to be between the two presidents.
In a foreign policy forum on Sept. 15, Kissinger said: "I am in favor of negotiating with Iran." He went on to say, "I actually have preferred doing it at the secretary of state level" and the U.S. should go into the talks with "a clear understanding of what is it we're trying to prevent. What is it going to do if we can't achieve what we're talking about? But I do not believe that we can make conditions for the opening of negotiations. We ought, however, to be very clear about the content of negotiations and work it out with other countries and with our own government."
UPDATE**
The McCain camp sends along the following statement from Henry Kissinger: "Senator McCain is right. I would not recommend the next President of the United States engage in talks with Iran at the Presidential level. My views on this issue are entirely compatible with the views of my friend Senator John McCain. We do not agree on everything, but we do agree that any negotiations with Iran must be geared to reality.
___
OBAMA: "John, you want to give oil companies another $4 billion" in tax breaks.
THE FACTS: The $4 billion in tax breaks for the oil companies is simply part of McCain's overall corporate tax reduction plan and does not represent an additional tax benefit. In other words, the corporate tax reduction applies to all corporations, oil companies included. Both Obama and McCain have proposed eliminating oil and gas tax loopholes.
___
MCCAIN: Said the country has lost the sense of accountability exemplified by Allied commander Dwight Eisenhower on the eve of D-Day. He said Eisenhower wrote one letter to be released in the event of victory, which praised the troops, "and he wrote out another letter, and that was a letter of resignation from the United States Army for the failure of the landings at Normandy."
THE FACTS: Eisenhower prepared to take responsibility in the note to be delivered in the event of D-Day disaster but did not offer to resign.
The full text:
"Our landings in the Cherbourg-Le Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based on the best information available. The troops, the air and the navy did all that bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt, it is mine alone."
___
OBAMA: Said he would make sure that the health care system "allows everyone to have basic coverage."
THE FACTS: If that sounds like universal health coverage, it's not. Obama picked his words carefully — stopping short of claiming outright that his plan provides health care for all. He promises to make health insurance affordable but would only require that children, not adults, have coverage. Estimates of how many would remain without insurance vary. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said during the primaries that Obama's plan would leave 15 million people uninsured.
___
MCCAIN: "We had an energy bill before the United States Senate. It was festooned with Christmas tree ornaments. It had all kinds of breaks for the oil companies, I mean, billions of dollars worth. I voted against it; Sen. Obama voted for it."
THE FACTS: Obama did vote for a 2005 energy bill supported by President Bush that included billions in subsidies for oil and natural gas production. McCain opposed the bill on grounds it included unnecessary tax breaks for the oil industry. Obama voted to strip the legislation of the oil and gas industry tax breaks. When that failed, he voted for the overall measure. Obama has said he supported the legislation because it provided money for renewable energy.
___
OBAMA: "We're also going to have to look at, how is it that we shredded so many regulations? We did not set up a 21st-century regulatory framework to deal with these problems. And that in part has to do with an economic philosophy that says that regulation is always bad."
THE FACTS: Some of the abuses that occurred stemmed from the 1999 repeal of a Depression-era law that separated banks from brokerages. In legislation supported by former President Clinton and Robert Rubin, now a top Obama adviser and treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, this separation was ended — allowing banks and insurance companies to sell securities.
But while regular banks were strictly regulated by the government, Wall Street banks and other non-bank institutions — many of the same institutions whose abuses led to the current crisis — were allowed to operate with less regulation.
___
MCCAIN: McCain said Obama voted to cut off money for the troops in Iraq.
THE FACTS: Despite opposing the war, Obama has, with one exception, voted for Iraq troop financing. In 2007, he voted against a troop funding bill because it did not contain language calling for a troop withdrawal. The Illinois senator backed another bill that had such language — and money for the troops.
___
MCCAIN: In a discussion of how the government could shrink spending, he said: "Look, we are sending $700 billion a year overseas to countries that don't like us very much."
THE FACTS: The comment echoes one he made in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention earlier this month, when he was talking about money the U.S. spends on foreign oil. FactCheck.org says the U.S. this year is on track to spend $536 billion on imported oil — not $700 billion — and nearly one-third of that comes from friendly nations: Canada, Mexico and Britain.
___
MCCAIN: "Sen. Obama twice said in debates he would sit down with Ahmadinejad, (Venezuelan President Hugo) Chavez and (Cuban President) Raul Castro without precondition."
OBAMA: "Now, understand what this means, 'without preconditions.' It doesn't mean that you invite them over for tea one day. ... There's a difference between preconditions and preparation. Of course we've got to do preparations, starting with low-level diplomatic talks, and it may not work, because Iran is a rogue regime."
THE FACTS: Obama was asked in a July 2007 debate whether he would be willing to meet "without precondition" with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Cuba and other countries the U.S. regards as rogue nations. Obama replied, "I would," adding that it was ridiculous to think that America is punishing such nations by refusing to speak with them. Time and again since then he has been forced to defend the statement, both by Democrats during the primaries and by Republicans.
Obama has tried to draw a distinction between a precondition and preparation. He has argued that he wouldn't demand that a foreign leader give in on some fundamental issue before the two sides met to discuss the dispute. But he has said "preparations" would require diplomatic contacts to gauge whether a formal meeting would be useful and to lay the groundwork for those talks.
___
MCCAIN: "You know, we spent $3 million to study the DNA of bears in Montana. I don't know if that was a criminal issue or a paternal issue, but the fact is that it was $3 million of our taxpayers' money. And it has got to be brought under control."
THE FACTS: A study regularly mocked by McCain as pork barrel spending could help ease restrictions on logging, development and even the oil and gas drilling that McCain wants to expand. Montana ranchers, farmers and Republican leaders pushed for the study as a step toward taking the grizzly bear off the endangered species list. Former Montana Gov. Judy Martz, a Republican and a McCain supporter, said the bear had been used to block the use of the state's abundant natural resources, when all along the animal was plentiful. "If it is going to remove it from the list, it is money well spent," Martz said.
